It is difficult to get a real-time take on current nationwide crime trends because the FBI releases its statistical reports annually and for the previous year, which is understandable since they have to aggregate statistics from thousands of municipalities across the country. Even though many local police departments are on top of things, it is still difficult to get a good broad-strokes reading of current crime trends.
Thank goodness that the FBI takes the time to compile all this stuff because the data are all over the map. In looking at 2009 vs. 2008 statistics for seven major crimes provided by the police departments of Seattle, Denver, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Chicago, no conclusions can be drawn about overall trends. In two of those cities -- Seattle and Denver -- crime has spiked disturbingly. In Cincinnati, overall arrests are up but offenses down in many categories. In New Orleans, a special case in the wake of Katrina's devastation, crime has dropped sharply this year. Chicago shows a slight drop in most categories, as does Atlanta.
What is the nationwide trend? It's impossible to say from these data. Earlier in the year, overall crime was reported to be down in a number of localities ranging from San Diego to New York City to Boston. Whether this holds through the remainder of the year remains to be seen. Also unclear is the trend in smaller cities and rural areas. We will have to wait until the FBI releases its report next year to get a handle on that.
In the name of formulating scientific hypotheses, let's assume for a moment that traditional crime rates are dropping during this recession. Why might this be?
Three possible reasons:
Extended unemployment benefits have kept many potentially desperate people from turning to crime. In this case, we would not expect a spike in crime until later this year or early next year as those benefits run out.
Law enforcement budgets have not been cut that drastically. The hard lesson learned in the '60s and '70s in New York City was that when the NYPD's budget is stretched thin, crime skyrockets. Thanks to the economic stimulus, many law enforcement agencies have not had to drastically reduce their policing efforts yet.
Criminals have turned to other crimes not tracked by traditional local police statistics. The most obvious example would be identity theft.
It is likely that all three of the above reasons play into the apparent "non-issue" of rising crime during this recession. To keep the crime rate low, the government has to figure out a way to help all those unemployed people after their extended benefits run out, and police departments need to be funded well.
The third issue is more vexing. Little can be done about the problem of identity theft, which has reached epidemic proportions with ten million new victims each year. This is a very easy crime to commit and a difficult crime to investigate and prosecute. It shows no signs of abating. The government can't help us on this one. We all need to find ways to protect ourselves.
It is good news that traditional crime appears to remain largely under control during this recession. Nobody can argue against that.
You wouldn't walk in dark alleys in bad neighborhoods without some sort of protection, but that's exactly what you're doing by not actively protecting yourself from the endlessly dark alley of ID theft. Get some ID theft protection!
