"Burglaries rise fast as economy goes slow"was the headline on the front page of the London Times newspaper on 29th June 2011.
This much anticipated 'recession crime wave' is set to have a significant impact on both domestic and international relocation services.
According to the Metropolitan Police there were big increases in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle crime in the past 12 months, with other Forces' Chief Constables claiming clear signs that burglary and robbery are "on the turn", with commentators anticipating that crime rates can only worsen as unemployment increases.
A couple of days after the Times article appeared, the figures covering May 2011 for the whole of England and Wales were published on the Police UK website. Type in your postcode and you will be shown a map detailing the month's crimes broken down into various categories.
Not for the faint hearted, particularly for urban dwellers. The stark data can make genteel Hampstead or Holland Park look like Beirut on a bad night, and pointing out that a certain level of crime is inevitable, particularly in built up areas, does little to reassure those of a nervous disposition.
Or indeed anyone relocating and researching destination areas.
Publication of these crime statistics started in December 2010, so we now have a full six months worth to analyse. So what can it tell us and how does it impact on relocation services?
On the face of it, not much. Unsurprisingly, built up areas tend to have more crime than rural ones.
However, if one analyses the increase in crime rates nationally between December 2010 and May 2011 and then compares any target area against this benchmark, a different picture emerges in many parts of the country with, in many instances and counter to generally held beliefs, greater increases on crime in the rural rather than urban areas.
Furthermore, if one establishes national benchmarks for crime rates in areas of similar population density i.e., comparing like with like, thereby putting the 'Beirut effect' into context, you can get a real indication of whether an area is on the up or the slide.
Clearly this is precisely the sort of qualitative information a relocating family, whether moving domestically or coming in from abroad, would want to know.
Not only is it highly relevant to the issue of lifestyle choice, but also, given the coming recession crime wave, property values. Areas where crime rates are increasing faster than elsewhere, or are greater than neighbourhoods with similar characteristics, could quite easily experience a negative impact on property values. All very pertinent information when deciding where you are going to make your biggest investment.
And, if Additional Housing Cost Allowance (AHCA)/Mortgage Disparity Assistance/Housing Cost Disparity payment is part of the relocation package, it is now surely essential that this is becomes factored into the calculation.
Traditionally the concept of 'neighbourhood desirability' (as defined by the Differential Suppliers) has been based on the relatively static assessment of the residents' demographic profiles. Potentially, the much more volatile crime data turns this assessment on its head.
The data is out there for anyone to access and, given the current economic climate, it is bound to increase in significance. Fortunately, with regular and meaningful analysis, it should develop into a valuable tool not only for the relocating family, but also the relocation professional.
For more information about this and to see mapped examples, please visit our website at www.prsco.co.uk
Nick Draycott
Director
PRS Consultants
Property Price Disparity Data Consultants
http://www.prsco.co.uk
