Is Crime Down During This Recession? Why?

It is difficult to get a real-time take on current nationwide crime trends because the FBI releases its statistical reports annually and for the previous year, which is understandable since they have to aggregate statistics from thousands of municipalities across the country.  Even though many local police departments are on top of things, it is still difficult to get a good broad-strokes reading of current crime trends.

Thank goodness that the FBI takes the time to compile all this stuff because the data are all over the map.  In looking at 2009 vs. 2008 statistics for seven major crimes provided by the police departments of Seattle, Denver, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Atlanta, and Chicago, no conclusions can be drawn about overall trends.  In two of those cities -- Seattle and Denver -- crime has spiked disturbingly.  In Cincinnati, overall arrests are up but offenses down in many categories.  In New Orleans, a special case in the wake of Katrina's devastation, crime has dropped sharply this year.  Chicago shows a slight drop in most categories, as does Atlanta.

What is the nationwide trend?  It's impossible to say from these data.  Earlier in the year, overall crime was reported to be down in a number of localities ranging from San Diego to New York City to Boston.  Whether this holds through the remainder of the year remains to be seen.  Also unclear is the trend in smaller cities and rural areas.  We will have to wait until the FBI releases its report next year to get a handle on that.

In the name of formulating scientific hypotheses, let's assume for a moment that traditional crime rates are dropping during this recession.  Why might this be?

Three possible reasons:

Extended unemployment benefits have kept many potentially desperate people from turning to crime.  In this case, we would not expect a spike in crime until later this year or early next year as those benefits run out.
Law enforcement budgets have not been cut that drastically.  The hard lesson learned in the '60s and '70s in New York City was that when the NYPD's budget is stretched thin, crime skyrockets.  Thanks to the economic stimulus, many law enforcement agencies have not had to drastically reduce their policing efforts yet.
Criminals have turned to other crimes not tracked by traditional local police statistics.  The most obvious example would be identity theft.

It is likely that all three of the above reasons play into the apparent "non-issue" of rising crime during this recession.  To keep the crime rate low, the government has to figure out a way to help all those unemployed people after their extended benefits run out, and police departments need to be funded well.

The third issue is more vexing.  Little can be done about the problem of identity theft, which has reached epidemic proportions with ten million new victims each year.  This is a very easy crime to commit and a difficult crime to investigate and prosecute.  It shows no signs of abating.  The government can't help us on this one. We all need to find ways to protect ourselves.

It is good news that traditional crime appears to remain largely under control during this recession.  Nobody can argue against that.  

You wouldn't walk in dark alleys in bad neighborhoods without some sort of protection, but that's exactly what you're doing by not actively protecting yourself from the endlessly dark alley of ID theft. Get some ID theft protection!

Crime and the Recession

It has long been noted that in a recession, certain categories of crime may rise. With the economy in rough shape, criminals are getting more desperate in their attempts to steal. When people lose everything, and their very survival is at risk, they may be tempted to break the law. In today's economy, in which millions of people have lost their jobs, their homes, or both, crime is expected to rise over the immediate future.

With round upon round of layoffs, more and more people are out of work. As their unemployment benefits dry up, they become less able to feed themselves and their family. As a result, they may be tempted towards property crime. Your new TV may be pawned for someone else's groceries. It is an unfortunate truth that when on the brink of despair, some will be lured towards theft as income during times of economic stress.

As the recession grows longer, those who have been out of jobs begin to lose hope. Why is hope so important to the crime rate? When people have hope for a brighter future, they hold on to their morals and values more tenaciously. During short-term recessions, it is easier to hold on to hope, continuing to seek assistance through legal channels rather than turning to criminal options.

When all hope is lost, people must get creative, finding new ways to earn money. Those that have nothing left to lose have little reason not to turn to property crime to pay the bills. Crime becomes justified as a means of survival. Those perpetuating such crimes may also be jealous of those who have more food, more clothes, more money, and the means to survive. Others justify committing such crimes by thinking of it as a noble cause, putting food on the table through any means necessary. Such actions may also be committed because they provide a sense of control over one's circumstances, and a false sense of the stability once provided by a job. As a means to generate money, committing crimes may also result in decreased feelings of helplessness.

Once this behavior becomes justified, it becomes easier and easier to commit crimes. Psychologists have found that those who begin with petty property crimes are at a greater risk of progressing into larger crimes. If the economy remains in a recession or continues to worsen, the crime rate is expected to get worse as well. Crimes may escalate in value, frequency, and the level of violence used.

How can such results of a recession be reduced? Studies have shown that when people have the resources to provide for their needs, they are less likely to turn to crime as a way to provide for their families or as a way to control their situation. One can only hope that such support systems will do enough head off any increase in the crime rate resulting from the economy.

Particularly if the economy continues to worsen, you must prepare your family to deal with the resulting increase in crimes, including violent crimes and property crimes. Be observant of what's going on around you. Remember that nothing you own is worth more than your life. Anything that is stolen from you can be replaced, and you should never physically confront someone who is in the process of stealing. Simple security devices, including security cameras and signage on the exterior home, will serve to turn away opportunistic criminals, particularly inexperienced thieves in search of an easy target. While you may be cutting back on your household budget, one area that you shouldn't cut back on is home security.

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